While the West has reacted strongly to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China and India, representing over one third of the world’s population between, have taken a more ambiguous stance.
Both countries abstained from UNSC resolution vote on 25 February that condemned Russia’s attack on Ukraine while Chinese president Xi Jinping has called for “maximum restraint” and has urged negotiations. The two states are fierce rivals but have common causes in irredentist aspirations of their own and strategic links to Russia.
Beijing’s relationship with Moscow has deepened over recent years. A statement issued when the Russian and Chinese leaders met at the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing in early February decried NATO and US military expansion and warned there are no “forbidden” areas of co-operation between the two autocracies.
There is an argument that NATO inaction over Ukraine will embolden China to launch an invasion of Taiwan but that seems unlikely anytime soon. China is significantly more economically robust than Russia and any sanctions regime against it would have more implications for the West. However, while the US has time and again stated that it would not get militarily involved in Ukraine the calculus would be different with Taiwan.
The US “One China” policy dates back to the 1970s and acknowledges that China and Taiwan are one country. Nevertheless, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act promises to “make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability” but Washington has avoided explicitly detailing what articles or services might be provided.
This policy of “strategic ambiguity” deters Taiwan from declaring independence as it cannot be assured of US backing. It also means China may have to reckon with the might of the US military if it sought to take Taiwan by force.
President Joe Biden re-iterated in October 2021 that the US has “a commitment” to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China. China will likely bide it’s time on Taiwan until it has a greater military capacity or US interests change.
China expected an overwhelming and rapid victory for Russians. Putin’s speech declaring war on Ukraine was laced with anti-Western sentiments that were lauded in China where anti-NATO and anti US rhetoric is widespread and popular.
China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner and has considerable commercial interests in the country. While Beijing is keen to maintain Russia as a counterweight to the US in the Pacific region but won’t wish to become ensnared in Russia’s economic downward spiral if the conflict drags on.
India ties to Russia date back to the early Cold War era when the US allied with Pakistan India’s neighbour and rival. Although non-aligned during this era, New Delhi sought military and economic assistance from Moscow – a relationship, which in the case of military materiel, continues to this day. Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, New Delhi opposed sanctions on Russia and in return in 2020, Moscow refused to condemn India’s controversial decision to revoke the special autonomous status of Kashmir.
President Biden has been critical of Indian actions in Kashmir and its treatment of refugees. Nonetheless, India and the US have grown closer over the past few years aided by Washington’s increasingly hard-line attitude towards Beijing.
As US rivalry with China intensified, Washington cultivated security ties with New Delhi as a counterweight. Along with the US, Australia and Japan, India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – an informal grouping of Indo-Pacific nations devised to contain China.
India’s relationship with China, on the other hand, has remained strained. Intense rivalry and irredentist claims have precipitated scuffles between Indian and Chinese militaries along border regions.
India now faces a difficult conundrum as it doesn’t want to push long-time ally Russia further into India’s long-time rival China’s arms.
Jacqueline Fitzgibbon 
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