(9-minute read)
Myanmar, also known as Burma, is dominating news headlines since a military coup plunged the country into turmoil on 1 February. Elections, held back in November 2020, delivered a landslide victory to the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The overwhelming vote for the NLD meant that the military’s constitutionally guaranteed seats coupled with the seats of its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), are no longer be sufficient to stymie democratic reform. This result triggered the military (known as the Tatmadaw) to act to secure its grip on power as Myanmar houses of parliament were due to sit for their first session.
The south east Asian state though rich in natural resources suffers from poverty, inequality, corruption and a long-standing ethnic conflict described as the world’s longest civil war. The former British colony was manufactured into existence for administrative convenience akin to the creation of states such as Iraq in the Middle East. 68% of the population are Bamar while another 7-8 main ethnicities making up the bulk of the remainder. In total, there are 135 ethnic groups but the Bamars’ religion, language, culture and heritage dominate.
Buddhism is the national religion and Muslims are seen as historically linked to the British imperial project. Under British rule, Indian migrants alongside Anglo-Burmese gained advantage fuelling discontent. Imperial rule undermined traditional Burmese practices and fostered division amongst different ethnicities. The independence movement was led by Buddhists including Aung San Suu Kyi’s father.
Once it gained independence in 1948, Myanmar did not join the British Commonwealth instead becoming a republic. The Union of Burma had multi-party elections until fears of a push for federalism by ethnic groups led the military to launch a successful coup d’état in 1962. The military dictatorship that ensued under the auspices of the Burma Socialist Programme Party (BSPP) nationalised businesses and constituted the Socialist Republic of the Union of Burma deploying violent suppression as required. Under the BSPP, Myanmar became isolationist and anti-Western. There were restrictions on free speech, the media and political discourse. The period was economically disastrous.
The ‘8888’ pro-democracy uprising in 1988 faced violent suppression with echoes of current scenes as soldiers shot at protestors. However, the military quickly reasserted itself and re-established control but offered a roadmap for democratic transition with elections to be held in 1990. When the NLD won the general election in 1990 the military refused to relinquish power. Aung San Suu Kyi was put under house arrest and would remain there on and off for the next 15 years highlighted by a high profile, international campaign for her release.
A new constitution was drawn up in 2008 to begin the transition to democracy and ratified under questionable circumstances just days after the country was left in ruins by Cyclone Nargis. The constitution reserved enough seats in parliament for the military to make any further reform impossible without their acquiescence. It also reserved the portfolios of defence, internal affairs and border security for Tatmadaw appointees effectively putting the entire security apparatus of the state under exclusive military control. Furthermore, it placed onerous restrictions on political parties and those running for political posts. Anyone closely related to a non-citizen could not be president, for example. This included Aung San Suu Kyi who was married to a Briton and has British sons.
The 2010 elections promised an end to military rule with the release of political prisoners and the relaxation of press censorship. However, the NLD boycotted this election which allowed the Tatmadaw to retain power. Under the Obama administration, a tentative engagement with the west began which culminated in a visit by the US president in 2012. The NLD won a significant election victory in 2015 in what was seen as Myanmar’s first free and fair election. As Aung San Suu Kyi was forbidden from becoming president a new role of State Councillor was created for her. The NLD attempted to initiate constitutional reform were blocked by the military’s veto. Tensions heightened as the Tatmadaw saw their veto under threat as their electoral support eroded.
The collapse of the military party’s vote in 2020 and the NLD’s landslide meant the reserved military seats were no longer enough to guarantee the Tatmadaw’s power. The coup’s leader – Min Aung Hlaing – was due to retire from the military this coming July and is rumoured to have coveted the presidency to maintain his privilege and wealth and to protect himself from any ramifications from his role in the Rohingya atrocities.
The repression of Rohingya Muslims by the military had continued under NLD rule and has tarnished the international reputation of Aung San Suu Kyi. The Rohingya are not permitted the citizenship status allowed to other ethnic groups in Myanmar and are considered illegal immigrants from Bangladesh with no claim on the land they inhabit in Rakhine State in the north west of the country. They are in conflict with the Buddhist population of the region.
The Rohingya argue they have been in the region for centuries. A 2016 attack by a Rohingya insurgent group which resulted in the death of a number of Myanmar soldiers triggered a wave of retaliatory violence categorised as a genocide by international observers. As a result, many Rohingya have fled over the border to Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh which now has the distinction of hosting the world’s largest refugee camp
On 1 Feb 21—the day the new parliament set to convene – the military put Aung San Suu Kyi and other party members under house arrest and installed an acting president who passed power to the Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. The country is in a state of emergency for a period of one year until new elections could be arranged, according to the military leadership. After martial law was declared, the protests began. Though political parties representing ethnic minorities and some in civic society were and are wary of the NLD, they have stood together with it in denouncing the coup presenting a unified resistance.
The coup leaders are also likely to face considerable push-back from the United States-led west. Samantha Power, Biden’s USAID nominee, will no doubt argue for a forceful response to the coup. Power was part of the Obama administration when Myanmar began its re-engagement with the international community. She was an advocate of humanitarian intervention in Syria over which she ultimately clashed with Obama. Republican senator Mitch McConnell has taken a long-standing interest in the democratic transition in Myanmar too. Reflecting this, the Biden administration consulted McConnell before releasing a response to the events of 1 February.
However, Myanmar has international allies too. The state maintains close relations with neighbouring China which has considerable investments in the state. In 2019, Myanmar was amongst a group of states that signed letter to the UNHCR defending China’s treatment of its Uighur population. While China did not condemn the 1 February coup it has not offered support either. Beijing had been nurturing a cordial relationship with the NLD in the last few years and won’t relish to see its various projects and contracts threatened or delayed by political unrest. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of which Myanmar is a member has a significant role to play in initiating and co-ordinating a regional response and impressing on the Tatmadaw that the situation is intolerable.
Jacqueline Fitzgibbon 
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